Resilience Recalibrated:
Market Signals in the Age of Climate Consequence
Editor's Note
For decades, the climate crisis was a distant specter - melting ice caps in faraway places, parts per million in atmospheric charts, heat maps buried in scientific journals. Climate discourse skirted the harshest realities and stopped just short of naming the existential elephant in the room.
Today, it has landed squarely on municipal budgets, in insurance ledgers, and institutional portfolios. Everywhere.
We now live on a planet warmed by at least 1.5 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution, with projections pointing toward 2.5 degrees by the end of the century, unless an extraordinary course correction is made.
This is no longer a hypothetical scenario. It is a sobering projection and an inevitable reality.
In response, markets are quietly, but profoundly, reshaping themselves. The language of investment is evolving. Risk is no longer confined to volatility metrics; it now encompasses existential concerns, such as: Should I relocate, and if so, where? What does it mean to win in a climate-constrained world? Who benefits, and who enables the transition?
Adaptation and resilience are no longer niche policy terms; they are central tenets of our shared reality. To adapt, to become resilient, is an imperative. An imperative that is fast becoming the lingua franca of survival, of competitiveness, and increasingly, of success. An imperative that is now being positioned as the next frontier for financial and strategic investment.
The analysts, advisors, and investors featured in the Adapt USA agenda and in this report have matter-of-factly drawn their analyses to logical conclusions and held up quantitative mirrors to a captivated and concerned audience. They are speaking a new dialect of value, one where spreadsheets meet seawalls and due diligence contends with the unquantifiable. The shift has been quiet and understated, yet absolute. And likely irrevocable.
This report focuses on three core themes: 1. Policy 2. Investment and 3. Supply Chain Risk.
But at its core, this report is about A. Preparation and B. Perspective.
New perspectives are driving new behaviors, and that is demonstrable in how our contributors are evaluating and navigating geopolitical and bureaucratic complexity and ambiguity, and in how they are aligning themselves with the ecosystems they serve. There is considerable value to be derived from observing how they are positioning themselves, and in the rigorously calculated and hard-earned perspectives they are willing to share.
The stage is set for frenetic first movers - those uniquely positioned to seize opportunity amid uncertainty: operators rethinking not just where capital flows, but how it flows, to set the pace, secure the big wins, and reaffirm the investment ideology.
As 2030 and 2050 projections crystallise into lived realities, these early adopters are building new economic models on the foundations of the systems we are already locked into. On the foundations of a world already transformed.
To learn more about them, from them, and gather intel on the new economics of climate adaptation and resilience, keep going…
Opinion: Localising Climate Adaptation Finance - Unlocking Scale by Connecting Cities to National and Global Policy
From heatwaves and sea level rise to floods and water stress, cities are on the frontlines of climate risk. Urban areas concentrate people, infrastructure, and economic activity, yet they receive only a fraction of global adaptation finance. According to the 2024 State of Cities Climate Finance report, while urban climate finance flows have increased, tracked adaptation finance for cities still accounts for just 1.2% of the total, or roughly $10 billion. Meanwhile, cities in emerging markets and developing economies will need an estimated $147 billion annually through 2030 to meet adaptation needs1.
This gap poses both a challenge and an opportunity. Cities are already innovating and adapting, from green roofs in Toronto to China’s “sponge cities” and Jakarta’s flood control and community early warning systems. What’s missing is systematic integration of these local solutions into national and global frameworks like National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) under the UNFCCC.
Enabling cities to scale their efforts - and attract private capital - requires an approach to adaptation policy that connects local, national, and global efforts and builds the enabling environment for adaptation finance and innovation at the local level.
First, national planning must better prioritise urban adaptation. Countries like Uruguay and Bhutan have integrated urban needs into their NAPs, engaging cities as key stakeholders2. Rwanda’s NAP links community-based projects with national priorities and has helped mobilise Green Climate Fund (GCF) finance3. Its environment fund, FONERWA, channels resources to local governments and aligns public and private investment toward resilience4. These approaches to NAP integration enable local solutions to be funded and tracked within broader national goals. And, through a NAP or similar process, national entities can also directly provide support and knowledge sharing to cities to facilitate learning and potential for scaling solutions.
Second, local adaptation must be connected to early-stage finance and an enabling environment that fosters solution testing and growth. Without support for feasibility studies, proposal development, and risk assessments, many urban projects remain unbankable. Initiatives like the Cities Climate Finance Leadership Alliance (CCFLA) and its guidance on project preparation facilities like the City Climate Finance Gap Fund5 are helping fill this gap, but far greater investment and coordination are needed. National governments can help by linking cities with funding opportunities and creating regulatory and policy environments that de-risk urban adaptation investment. This can include the use of guarantees and pooled structures, addressing economies of scale by bundling urban projects and overcoming municipal credit constraints that deter private sector involvement6.
Examples of successful vertical integration of climate adaptation policy and finance are growing. Kenya’s Financing Locally Led Climate Action (FLLoCA) Program channels funds from the national level to facilitate county-level climate action plans and County Climate Change Funds (CCCFs) that are donor-supported but also include county contributions. The program allows for decentralised funding and decision-making about resilience priorities that are tailored to local needs. The FLLoCA and other cases show that cities and subnational governments are not just recipients of adaptation finance - they are sources of knowledge and leadership that can be supported and scaled within the right policy and regulatory architecture.
Localisation isn’t just about shifting responsibility - it’s about unlocking cities’ potential as engines of adaptation. By aligning urban actions with national and global policy and by investing in the systems that prepare and finance adaptation projects, we can mobilise public and private finance for climate resilience in the urban context.
As the IPCC prepares its first dedicated Cities Report in the Seventh Assessment cycle, now is the time to recognise cities not as vulnerable but as vital to leading the global adaptation agenda.
1. Cities Climate Finance Leadership Alliance, 2024. State of Cities Climate Finance Report
2. www.adaptation-undp.org/bright-lights-leading-role-cities-climate-resilient-future
3. napglobalnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/napgn-en-2019-rwanda-nap-process-poster-1.pdf
4. napglobalnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/napgn-en-2019-rwanda-nap-process-poster-1.pdf
5. www.citygapfund.org/
6.citiesclimatefinance.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Integrating-Urban-and-Subnational-Priorities-into-Country-Platforms.pdf

Testbed for Tomorrow: Piloting Urban Climate Solutions on Governor's Island




You are a unique type of entity. One that has a unique arrangement with the City of New York. You are a non-profit, but government controlled and you have a contract with New York City that defines your overall vision and major projects.
What can you tell us about how the City of New York is thinking about climate adaptation and resilience? And how is that thinking reflected in the approach you apply to the Climate Solutions Piloting Program?
New York City has been a leader on climate action since the first PlaNYC was published on Earth Day on April 22, 2007. The City of New York is working to close the gap on the disproportionate impacts of climate change that lead to hundreds of preventable deaths every year through planning and investments that are already resulting in cleaner air, better mobility, safer homes, and growing green jobs and businesses – a future that is more equitable, healthy, and resilient in the face of increasing flood and heat risks.
As part of this decades-long effort, the Trust for Governors Island and the New York City Mayor’s Office announced a vision to create the Center for Climate Solutions, a community to accelerate climate solutions for cities on Governors Island. This work supports the research, development, and demonstration of equitable climate solutions for New York City that can be scaled and applied globally.
Today, Governors Island represents a living lab for the everyday conditions of New York City and other dense urban environments that need to become both more sustainable and resilient. The Trust’s Climate Piloting Program, launched in 2023, offers opportunities for innovators to test early-stage climate products and services on Governors Island; collect data in a real-world environment; and engage with funders, investors, customers, and Island visitors. Selected teams are developing products and services that address the uneven landscape of climate impacts in cities and that can retrofit or improve existing buildings, infrastructure, transportation, waste management systems, and other critical urban services in New York City and other cities.


Governors Island serves as a testbed for urban climate solutions, including nature-based solutions (NbS). How were the projects selected, and how are they addressing real-world conditions in New York City?
Several teams are piloting nature-based solutions on Governors Island in 2025 that will restore habitat, capture environmental pollution, and green our city.
All selected projects must have a clear, compelling proposal that meets certain requirements—for instance, they must be temporary; they must meaningfully address a problem, inequity, or critical barrier in climate; their proposal should illustrate a sound methodology and present good potential to accelerate the inclusive blue/green economy and workforce in NYC; and they should support a critical milestone in product or service development and deployment, such as solutions validation, beta testing, and data collection; among other criteria. Importantly, the projects also must make sense for Governors Island and have the potential to scale in New York City and other dense urban environments. Priority is given to projects that can make use of our unique asset base, including a 2.2-mile waterfront, 43-acre climate-resilient park, 7 miles of car-free streets, 50+ historic buildings, sewer and water infrastructure, and more.
Project spotlights include:
- Seaweed City – Urban seaweed aquaculture nonprofit with a mission to restore our marine ecosystems, clean our water, and promote community investment in the New York City estuary. Their work began in Newtown Creek, a superfund site in Brooklyn, where they demonstrated that sugar kelp can grow in adverse urban conditions while capturing pollutants.
- Just Ecocities / Biohabitats – Piloting the Tidal Planter, a modular onshore wetland system inspired by living shorelines that is designed to improve water quality, expand habitat, and engage communities. Their research began in Flushing, Queens, through volunteering with a local community group, and a goal to re-establish salt marsh habitat in urban waterfronts that are already protected by sea walls, bulkheads, and riprap.
- Plantaer – A living concrete façade demonstrating how their new material can help buildings and infrastructure better adapt to the urban heat island effect and improve air quality. Plantaer is committed to developing biocompatible materials for the built environment.


Looking ahead 15 years, how do you see the role of non-profit, climate adaptation-focused test labs, like yours, evolving, especially in cities like New York, that are already built out?
And what kinds of changes and trends do you anticipate in the broader climate adaptation investment and innovation landscapes?
Governors Island offers an open and flexible platform for companies to test their products and services on our physical site as they grow their business. The Trust’s annual Climate Solutions Challenge is announced each fall. The Challenge awards no-fee access to a project site on Governors Island, along with a $10,000 prize and access to supplemental grants to support project design and deployment, generally not to exceed an additional $20,000. A year-round general application is available to self-funded teams. Companies may also access technical support and engage with key stakeholders and funders through showcases and other events.
Innovation with an open spirit and transparency can go a long way to make better products and services to support sustainable, resilient, and equitable urban communities. One hallmark of piloting on Governors Island is that products and services can undergo testing and de-risking in a beloved public place. Companies gain exposure to the Trust’s cross-sectoral network of government, industry, academic, and community partners alongside the Island’s growing audience of nearly one million annual visitors, including from all five New York City boroughs and around the world. Previous participants have made tremendous progress during their time in the program, including bringing technology from the lab into an operational environment, growing their teams, accessing capital and grant opportunities, and developing relationships with suppliers, customers, and more.
Looking ahead, adaptation is on the rise. Climate impacts are here, and cities urgently need solutions today. As the market catches up, real-world testbeds like Governors Island are crucial for validating new products and services for cities and creating learning opportunities, not only for founders and their teams, but also the regulators, business owners, workers, and residents that comprise their future markets.
Temperature Check: State of Adaptation Post-Biden

Temperature Check: State of Adaptation Post-Biden
Tune in to hear our panellists take stock of U.S. climate adaptation efforts following the Biden administration, examining key policy gains, current shifts under new federal leadership, and their effects on private sector momentum.
This discussion also explores persistent challenges in government adaptation strategies and outlines pathways for public-private collaboration to ensure long-term resilience, irrespective of political cycles.






From Global to Local: How Policy Can Unlock Finance for Adaptation
In 2015, the landmark Paris Agreement included a global goal on adaptation (GGA): enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience, and reducing vulnerability. For several years, Parties deliberated on how to operationalise this goal. It wasn’t until 2021 that a formal process began to articulate the elements of the GGA, culminating in a set of global adaptation targets at COP28. Currently, negotiations continue around the development of indicators to track progress against these targets.
While the intricacies of multilateral negotiations may seem distant from the daily concerns of businesses, financial institutions, and solution providers, these high-level decisions significantly influence the broader political and funding landscape. A clearer understanding of how adaptation and resilience feature on the global agenda can empower stakeholders to more effectively advocate for their solutions, engage policymakers, and tap into public mechanisms that support and scale adaptation efforts.
Adaptation is inherently cross-sectoral, making coordination across institutions and agencies both essential and complex. Under the Biden Administration, the Office of the Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, in partnership with USAID, launched the international adaptation effort known as PREPARE. This whole-of-government strategy united 20 federal departments and agencies to support climate adaptation in developing countries. PREPARE not only helped align U.S. government efforts under a common framework but also created clearer pathways for international partners to engage with the U.S. system, which can be challenging and complex to navigate. More governments, including those in emerging and developing economies, could leverage this model to clarify adaptation priorities and capabilities to a wider range of stakeholders.
A key component of PREPARE was its emphasis on mobilising private capital for adaptation. Today, as public finance faces growing constraints - not just from the change in U.S. policy, but globally due to persistent macroeconomic pressures - the need to use limited public funds strategically to catalyse private investment is more urgent than ever. Organisations like Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) are focused on this exact effort. Through the Global Innovation Lab for Climate Finance and the Catalytic Climate Finance Facility, CPI designs and scales blended finance instruments that unlock capital market resources for adaptation. However, the drive for scale must not eclipse support for local initiatives. CPI’s 2024 State of Cities Climate Finance report revealed that while total tracked urban climate finance reached USD 831 billion in 2021/2022, only USD 10 billion was directed to urban adaptation. Recognising this gap, the Cities Climate Finance Leadership Alliance (CCFLA) launched a dedicated workstream in 2023 focused on urban adaptation and resilience finance. In March 2025, CCFLA released a scoping paper outlining key supply and demand-side challenges and opportunities, setting the stage for future action.
Bridging the gap between global ambition and local implementation is essential to advancing meaningful adaptation outcomes. While international frameworks help set the tone and direction, real progress depends on policy coordination, public-private partnerships, and targeted financial instruments that work in tandem to ensure that adaptation finance reaches those on the frontlines. As climate impacts continue to grow, increasing the availability and effectiveness of adaptation finance will be important for sustainable development. Achieving this will require both strategic planning and practical action, from global negotiations to local implementation.
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The New Frontier for Private Wealth: Investing in Survival
The climate investment narrative is shifting. Where once “climate tech” dominated the conversation, today’s dialogue increasingly revolves around regeneration, reindustrialisation to resilience.
Yet, beneath this change in language, a critical imbalance persists: adaptation, the urgent need to prepare for the impact of climate change, remains woefully underfunded.
As climate change accelerates, bringing more frequent and severe weather events, disrupted supply chains, and threats to food and water security, adaptation is no longer optional. And, importantly, it’s an investable opportunity. We are living in the calm before the storm. Private wealth, a sleeping giant with vast resources, stands poised to act before the floodgates break. But how can we position them as an asset class?
A Triple Edge Sword: Freedom, Flexibility, Foresight
Private wealth holds three unique advantages over traditional institutional capital: freedom, flexibility, and foresight. These qualities position it as a natural leader in adaptation finance. With global private assets now exceeding $210 trillion, far surpassing the world’s adaptation funding needs, the question isn’t about capacity, but about will.
Why, then, the hesitation? Adaptation has long been framed as a cost - a defensive, even moral, obligation. This is a misstep. In reality, adaptation is a strategic and largely untapped investment opportunity. It spans resilient infrastructure, water security, smart agriculture, health innovations, and advanced early warning systems. It’s not just about risk reduction; it’s about unlocking new value in a changing world.
What Is There to Lose?
Here’s the twist: those with the most wealth also have the most to lose and gain from climate instability. Coastal properties, global supply chains, food markets, and workforce health are all at risk. Yet, adaptation isn’t merely about protecting assets, it's about seizing opportunity.
There’s a paradox at play: the wealthiest are often the most insulated from immediate harm, but their capital has the power to shape outcomes for everyone. If adaptation remains underfunded, instability will rise, migration will surge, and inequality will deepen, all of which erode long-term value for everyone, including the wealthy.
Breaking Through: Innovation, Insight, and Influence
So, how do we unlock this potential? It starts with better data. Advances in climate risk modeling now offer unprecedented insight into sector-specific and geographic vulnerabilities and opportunities. New financial instruments, such as resilience funds and blended finance vehicles, can turn volatility into investable outcomes.
Recent data shows that public interventions have successfully mobilised $3.5 billion in private adaptation finance, demonstrating the power of blended finance and public-private partnerships. Public-private partnerships can combine the reach and mandate of governments with the agility and innovation of private capital
A Call to Legacy
Imagine a world where wealth is measured not just in dollars, but in the resilience it enables. Where long-term success is defined by thriving communities, functioning ecosystems, and a livable planet, not just financial returns. This is the true calling of legacy capital.
Adaptation is the next frontier of investment, not just for survival, but for thriving in a rapidly changing world. The window is open, but it won’t stay open for long. The time to act is now, otherwise, the cost will be greater than anyone can imagine.
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Catalytic Capital for Adaptation: Investing Where Others Won’t




Venture capital (VC) is just one part of the climate capital stack. As climate startups scale and begin building physical infrastructure and commercial facilities, VC funding becomes a less feasible option for supporting next levels of growth. In 2025, where is venture capital making the biggest impact in climate adaptation, and where is it falling short?
Over the past decade, I've worked closely with 75+ startups across stages, with the last five years focused on climate mitigation and adaptation solutions. Leading innovation at Elemental Impact has given me a front-row seat to how this challenge is playing out.
Venture capital remains crucial for climate adaptation, particularly in three areas: funding early R&D when founders are still proving their technology works, providing bridge capital when timelines inevitably shift, and accelerating growth for companies that find product-market fit.
But here's where things break down - what we at Elemental Impact call the "Scale Gap." Unlike traditional startups, climate companies hit a critical juncture when they are ready to build their first commercial facilities within the $10-40M range. We have quantified this gap at about $150 billion, which is staggering when you consider what's at stake.
I recently sat with an agtech founder whose technology has had successful pilots and a list of excited customers. Yet when seeking financing for their first commercial facility, VCs stepped back saying "This looks like it should be project finance," while project financiers said, "Come back after you have built a few facilities." Classic catch-22.
That's why at Elemental, we are creating bridges to bankability for these critical technologies. Our approach combines catalytic capital with project expertise, local partnerships, and investor mobilisation. The results speak for themselves: compared to similar companies, those in our portfolio are 2.5x more likely to survive from early to late commercial stages.
Climate adaptation technologies deliver tangible benefits - protecting communities from a wide range of climate-induced disasters. They are simply too important to let stall at this critical juncture.


As climate tech companies enter a capital-intensive maturation phase, how can investors, particularly later-stage funds and debt providers, effectively step in to fill the financing gap left by traditional VCs to ensure these critical projects scale and succeed?
Climate tech hardware demands a different playbook than software startups, especially when building physical infrastructure.
For later-stage funds and debt providers to effectively fill the financing gap, they need to understand that each project requires building a customised capital stack. Often, some form of catalytic capital is needed to de-risk the project, whether through concessionary returns, flexible financial covenants, or technical assistance, which then helps mobilise investment from these traditional capital sources.
What's critically missing today is collaborative financing. Investors need to abandon the competitive, siloed approach that works for traditional tech and instead work in concert to build complete financing solutions. This means project financiers talking to venture investors, banks coordinating with impact funds, and everyone sharing due diligence to reduce transaction costs.
- At Elemental, we have seen four critical factors that enable successful financing transitions:
- First, deploy catalytic capital structured specifically for project development. We created the Development SAFE (D-SAFE) as non-dilutive funding for pre-construction activities that traditional investors typically won't touch. This initial de-risking creates opportunities for later-stage investors to enter with more confidence.
- Second, bring hands-on project expertise. In our portfolio survey, 71% of companies cited specialised knowledge in areas like permitting and stakeholder engagement as critical to success. Later-stage investors can partner with organisations that provide this expertise or develop it internally.
- Third, facilitate local partnerships. One founder I worked with spent months building relationships with community organisations before breaking ground - it paid dividends throughout development. Later-stage investors should prioritise projects with strong local support.
- Finally, be willing to participate in blended capital structures. The most successful projects often involve a mix of catalytic funding, venture equity, project finance, and specialised debt instruments. Later-stage investors need flexibility to participate in these innovative arrangements rather than waiting for "perfect" deals that simply don't exist at this stage.


What is catalytic capital, and how would you define its role in the adaptation-focused climate tech investing space? Can you share examples from your own portfolio where catalytic capital has unlocked transformative private investment in scalable, high-impact adaptation solutions?
Catalytic capital is money willing to go where other money won't - at least not yet. It takes more risk and/or accepts lower returns, often to mobilise private capital and prove models that can eventually attract mainstream investment.
At Elemental Impact, our nonprofit structure enables us to invest where traditional capital markets won't. The results speak for themselves: for every dollar we have invested, our companies have raised an additional $100B in follow-on funding.
Nitricity exemplifies this impact. When building their first commercial facility producing decentralised, low-emissions nitrogen fertiliser in California (crucial for onshoring production and supporting food security), we provided D-SAFE investments for critical pre-development activities, paired with hands-on technical assistance.
The result? Our catalytic involvement helped them secure a loan extension from their commercial lender, unlock tax credits, and attract two additional investors. Without that initial push, this project likely would have stalled at the blueprint stage.
These aren't just feel-good stories - they are proof that strategic catalytic capital can build critical climate infrastructure while creating sustainable financing pathways for the future.


In the context of your work in regenerative agriculture, how do you distinguish between 'adaptation' and 'resilience', and how do you apply each of these concepts in your investment decisions?
“Adaptation” is about the need to change, over the short and long term, to our shifting climate through a new way of daily living and functioning as a society. “Resilience” is more about our systems’ ability to withstand various shocks as time-bound events, and then quickly rebuild. Both of these framings, which are inherently interrelated, are key to any investment decision we make, particularly those working within natural systems.
When it comes to agriculture, adaptation solutions encompass everything from crop selection and breeding to new forms of propagation, water conservation, and farmworker safety. Frankly, it applies to almost everything in agriculture. While resilience is where regenerative agriculture really sits, building soils’ ability to withstand increasing drought, heat, and temperature extremes, along with the related rise in crop diseases and pests. Solutions that help enable the integration of regenerative practices on farms build a more resilient food supply chain, and one that can handle the inevitable shocks ahead.
Agriculture needs both immediate strengthening and long-term transformation. By supporting technologies across this spectrum, we are building the comprehensive toolkit farmers need to thrive in increasingly unpredictable conditions.


How does capital flow differ between investments in adaptive agriculture and those focused specifically on agricultural resilience, such as preserving soil health and crop viability, versus adapting through measures like crop relocation or genetic modification?
When it comes to capital flow in agriculture, I've witnessed a striking imbalance firsthand. Complex biotechnology solutions - particularly genetic modification - consistently attract significantly more venture funding than regenerative approaches focused on soil health and ecosystem resilience.
This disparity isn't surprising when you understand investor psychology. Biotech offers familiar scaling patterns and strong IP protection. Meanwhile, regenerative solutions involve complex biological systems, longer validation periods, and fewer obvious IP moats, despite their tremendous potential for climate resilience.
The regenerative agriculture movement faces a significant financing gap, and mobilising catalytic capital across crop production and distribution is pivotal to building the resilient food system we need. At Elemental, we are addressing this through innovative financing tools and strategic partnerships that help connect these critical solutions to appropriate capital sources before it's too late.
Bridging The Investment Gap

Bridging the Investment Gap: How Different Investment Forms are the Key to the Future of Adaptation
This discussion explores how diverse investment approaches, ranging from public-private partnerships to blended finance, can bridge the widening gap between portfolio risk and escalating climate risk.
It highlights where financing is falling short, where innovation is gaining traction, and how strategically aligned capital can unlock scalable, long-term adaptation solutions.









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The Climate Crisis Is Disrupting Supply Chains: Here’s How Data and Resilience Can Save Them
The climate emergency isn’t coming - it’s here. And it’s rewriting the rules of global commerce. If your supply chain isn’t ready, your business isn’t either.
From raging wildfires to devastating floods, climate change is no longer a distant threat but a daily reality. Nowhere is its impact more visible than in the global supply chain. In 2024 alone, the U.S. faced 27 billion-dollar climate disasters. People felt the real-life impacts beyond the headlines: shutdowns, shortages, and shattered bottom lines.
So how do we fight back?
With clarity. With courage. And with data.
Data: The Compass in the Climate Storm
A mature data strategy brings insight, foresight, and power.
Without integrated, real-time data from suppliers, assets, and geospatial sources, companies are flying blind into the storm. But with it, they can map vulnerabilities, predict disruptions, and pivot with precision.
Geospatial intelligence, for example, can reveal which suppliers are in flood zones, which routes are wildfire-prone, and where biodiversity is at risk. This isn’t just smart business - it’s survival. And with new regulations like IFRS S2 and CSRD’s climate disclosure rules, it’s also mandatory.
Resilience Over Efficiency: A New Supply Chain Ethos
Companies around the world pursued leaner supply chains in the early 2000s, but the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent fallout revealed vulnerabilities in existing procurement models; factories could not operate as usual, and businesses did not have enough product in stock to meet demand.
COVID-19 was just the beginning of this sea change: The US’ new tariffs have introduced global uncertainty around trade routes; and natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts and cybersecurity breaches all continue to reveal supply chain vulnerabilities.
Today, resilience is a lifeline, and it has overtaken efficiency as the top supply chain priority. And for good reason. Lean supply chains break under pressure. Resilient ones bend, adapt, and recover. But resilience requires visibility, deep, end-to-end transparency that most companies still lack. Especially beyond tier-one suppliers, where the real risks often hide.
Technology Is the Bridge to Resilience
To build resilient, climate-ready supply chains, we need the right tools. Technologies like RFID tags, IoT sensors, and ESG tracking platforms turn blind spots into insights and chaos into control.
Companies with mature ESG programs are already ahead. In addition to tracking emissions, they are building systems that can weather any storm. In a world where regulations are tightening and consumers are watching, that’s a competitive edge you can’t afford to ignore.
This Is the Moment to Act
The climate crisis is the defining challenge of our time. But it’s also a call to innovate, to lead, and to build something better. Your supply chain can be part of the problem or part of the solution.
Now is the time to invest in data. To build resilience. To lead with purpose. Because the future won’t wait - and neither will the next climate event.
AI, Supply Chains, and the Future of Climate Strategy




At Adapt Unbound, you contributed to a fireside chat on the evolving disclosure landscape and its implications for corporations and investors. How did that discussion unfold, and were there any insights or audience reactions that took you by surprise?
The conversation was incredibly timely, especially with Manifest Climate releasing our “Mind the Gap” report on the same day, which analyses climate disclosure maturity across the Global Fortune 500. The discussion surfaced a clear tension: while companies continue to disclose, even with regulatory pullback, there’s a persistent gap between disclosure and decision-useful climate information, particularly around how companies are taking action to minimise climate risk and focusing resources and management attention on what matters. What surprised me most was the strong interest from investors and other financial sector players in moving beyond checkbox compliance toward forward-looking climate intelligence. There’s growing recognition that disclosures need to reflect not just risk, but readiness. And organisations and financial institutions across the spectrum are looking at this info to make better decisions about their own businesses.


As we undergo a global climate transformation, how would you assess the current state of the market? Specifically, where do most companies stand in this transition, particularly in terms of integrating supply chain data into climate strategies and meeting investor disclosure expectations?
The Mind the Gap report revealed that even among the Global Fortune 500, only a minority have achieved meaningful maturity in climate disclosure, and supply chain integration remains a major blind spot. While many companies are making top-line commitments, there’s a noticeable lag in operationalising those goals through their value chains. Investors are increasingly expecting climate disclosures to go beyond the corporate boundary, but the tools and data governance required for that shift are not yet widespread. The market is in transition, but confidence is still building.


How can AI support companies in enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of climate-related financial disclosures, particularly when it comes to integrating supply chain data and meeting evolving standards like the TCFD?
AI has a huge role to play in accelerating climate disclosure maturity - not just in processing vast, unstructured datasets, but in standardising how climate risks are framed and quantified. At Manifest Climate, we are using expert-trained AI to reduce manual work and allow for rapid analysis of public disclosures at scale, to produce decision-useful insights. This type of "data crunching" goes beyond what humans can do, and will need to be rapidly scaled and operationalised to drive the transformative change required. By standardising datapoints and allowing for easy comparison across companies' disclosures, including within the supply chain, we can get to more strategic decisions and clarity across the value chain. It’s not about replacing human judgment - it’s about unlocking scale and improving consistency and comparability.


In the context of 2025’s evolving disclosure landscape, how are TCFD-aligned data models helping companies assess and report supply chain climate risks in a way that meets heightened investor expectations for transparency, comparability, and regulatory readiness?
Regulatory framework (not just TCFD, but also ISSB, CSRD, etc) aligned models are becoming the baseline for investor-grade climate disclosure, but their real value lies in helping companies organise decision-useful data, especially across portfolios and supply chains. What we are seeing, and what Mind the Gap highlights, is that companies with structured, repeatable disclosure processes are better equipped to identify risks, assess materiality, and communicate strategy clearly. With incoming regulations demanding more traceability and auditability, these models are not just frameworks, they are becoming strategic infrastructure.


Do you have any thoughts on how corporate decision-making should evolve to meet the challenges of today’s and tomorrow’s climate realities? What will it take for C-suite leaders to develop the confidence needed to effectively understand, manage, and disclose these emerging risks?
Building climate confidence in the C-suite means shifting from episodic reporting to embedded climate governance. Leaders need access to decision-grade data, not just for disclosures, but to inform capital allocation, procurement, and risk management. One of the clearest takeaways from Mind the Gap is that maturity in climate disclosure correlates with strategic clarity. Executives need tools and insights that translate climate risks into business terms, and frameworks like TCFD, coupled with AI-powered platforms, are beginning to make that possible. But culture change is just as critical: climate must be part of every leadership conversation.
Communicating Supply Chain Risk in a Climate-Disrupted World




How does the withdrawal of the SEC’s proposed climate rule affect the direction of corporate climate risk reporting and governance practices?
While the SEC's final rule abandons the proposed mandatory disclosure, the ruling itself was a pivotal step toward focusing business action. It is important to note that businesses are still acting; disclosure is not the only driver. Many companies were already taking steps to identify and assess their physical risk exposure, and many of these companies are still investing in adaptation. Nevertheless, it has undoubtedly become more challenging for risk and sustainability teams to gain buy-in for investment without the mandatory disclosure requirements acting as a driver.
The evolving regulatory landscape - including new disclosure rules from U.S. states - signals to corporate boards and executives the imperative to integrate climate risk into core governance and strategic decision-making processes. The conversation becomes less about external disclosure and more about business resilience and business value. This latest development underscores the necessity for companies to proactively align with international frameworks like TCFD and the EU's CSRD/Omnibus, ensuring consistency and comparability in disclosures across jurisdictions. Regulators are continuing to catch up to where financial markets already are.
In today's environment, materiality and resilience are paramount, and it is important to reframe “ESG” and “climate action” in terms of economic growth, job creation, business resilience, and competitiveness, which resonate more effectively today. At WBCSD, we view such moments as opportunities for companies to lead by embedding climate resilience into their core strategies, ensuring long-term value creation regardless of regulatory mandates, and as such, have created a Business Leader’s Guide on Adaptation and Resilience.


What role will the newly approved Green Impact Exchange play in advancing U.S. climate adaptation disclosures and directing capital toward resilience-focused investments?
The Green Impact Exchange (GIX) will play a pivotal role in providing a greater degree of transparency on how companies are addressing climate issues, making it easier to direct capital toward resilience-focused investments. GIX will require listed companies to adopt specific sustainability standards, including transparent reporting on climate-related risks and adaptation strategies. This emphasis on disclosure aligns with the growing demand from investors for detailed information on how companies are addressing climate change impacts.
By mandating such disclosures, GIX aims to improve the quality and consistency of climate-related information available to investors, facilitating more informed decision-making. GIX provides investors with streamlined access to firms actively engaged in climate resilience. GIX's structure is designed to attract capital to companies developing solutions for climate adaptation.


With the SEC’s proposed climate disclosure rule withdrawn, what steps can companies take to align with international standards like the TCFD and European sustainability frameworks, while also managing legal and compliance risks across jurisdictions?
Even in Europe, the disclosure landscape remains uncertain – omnibus changes to the CSRD are still unfolding and currently in the hands of EU ministers. However, if businesses approach disclosure with a focus on understanding their own risk exposure, rather than treating it as a compliance box-ticking exercise, they will be better positioned to navigate the evolving landscape and unlock value earlier than those who attempt to simply wait it out.
Companies should adopt a comprehensive approach to climate disclosure, encompassing governance structures, risk management processes, and scenario analyses aligned with TCFD recommendations.Using a range of scenarios – not a single projection, and couple that with business intelligence to understand what impact these risks will have on the business - not only financially in terms of P&L or money impact from extreme weather events - but also the operational impact (business interruptions, supply chain disruptions, equipment downtime, impacts on staff) and in terms of long-term business strategy (future viability of products, or business continuity) – and then adapt accordingly.
It is also important to approach disclosure in a holistic manner. Leading companies are also considering nature and social risks alongside climate risks, looking at TNFD, and the upcoming TISFD to assess synergies or cascading impacts:
- Start with materiality and governance: ensure climate risks and opportunities are integrated into corporate governance, risk management, and strategic planning, consistent with TCFD and ISSB expectations.
- Build cross-functional capacity: Companies need internal alignment across finance, sustainability, risk, and legal teams to produce consistent, credible disclosures across jurisdictions like the EU’s CSRD and emerging global standards.
- Disclose to drive performance: use climate reporting not just for compliance, but to drive performance, inform capital allocation, and engage investors and stakeholders around progress on transition plans and resilience.


For U.S. companies navigating complex compliance requirements, especially around ensuring the integrity and transparency of their suppliers’ supply chains, how do they manage the burden of associated costs, data quality, and detailed information gathering throughout their value chain?
U.S. companies can better manage compliance costs and supply chain transparency by prioritising high-risk areas, using shared digital platforms to streamline data collection, and working collaboratively with suppliers to build capacity and address the associated risks in their operations. Rather than aiming for full visibility overnight, the focus is on continuous improvement and smart risk management - balancing integrity with practicality.


What aspects of supply chain risk are we failing to communicate effectively, and how can we reframe the conversation to foster broader understanding in a constructive, non-political way?
There are several aspects that we fail to communicate. The first is that supply chain risk is not just a logistics problem. Many think of supply chains as shipping containers and factory schedules. We fail to convey how deeply supply chain risk is tied to business continuity, community resilience, national security, and consumer trust. For example, a climate-induced crop failure isn't just a farming issue – it's a supply chain collapse with ripple effects on food prices, product availability, and social stability. In the first half of 2024, supply chain disruptions increased by 30% compared to the same period in the previous year, driven by the escalating impact of volatile climate-related events, as well as social and labor disruptions.
Another point is that resilience isn’t just for backup plans; it’s better design. Too often, supply chain “resilience” is interpreted as having more inventory or alternate suppliers. But real resilience comes from building shorter, more transparent, and more equitable supply chains – a point that’s rarely made clearly.
It’s important for us to reframe the conversation to foster broader understanding. There are several ways to do this:
- Reframe from “global supply chains” to “everyday essentials”:
- Speak in terms people understand. Reframe risk in the context of products people rely on every day: food, medicine, clothing, technology. This shifts the conversation from abstract to relatable.
- Example: “When the supply chain breaks, it’s not a business problem—it’s a baby formula shortage, a delayed surgery, or higher grocery bills.”
- Reframe from “ESG pressures” to “consumer and investor expectations”:
- Frame responsible supply chain practices as a response to market signals, not ideology. Consumers want transparency. Investors want stability. This is about market alignment, not moral statements
- Use case studies, not jargon:
- Replace abstract threat descriptions with real-world stories.
- An example would be two years ago when severe droughts in California and flooding in the Midwest disrupted the production of key crops like almonds, lettuce, corn, and soybeans. These climate-driven events reduced crop yields and delayed harvests, leading to higher prices and occasional shortages of fresh produce and packaged foods for U.S. consumers. As a result, grocery bills rose, and some products became less available, directly impacting American households.
The Survey
As part of the Adapt Unbound campaign, we surveyed attendees before and after the event to better understand how professionals across the climate space are accounting for the plausibility of a 3°C future in their planning and decision-making.
The majority of respondents, over 60%, indicated they were already factoring the risk of a 3°C world into their strategies. Following the event, nearly 15% shared that the event had meaningfully shifted their perspective and changed their thinking on the matter.
These responses offer a telling snapshot: while many climate leaders are already engaging with high-end warming scenarios, the event helped move the needle for others, suggesting that bold dialogue, when well-timed, can accelerate readiness and reframe what’s at stake.
Yes,20;
No,9;
Other,6;
Yes - the event has changed my answer,2;
Yes - was doing so before,13;
No,1;
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